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The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) is a weekly report of the government, knowing that the extreme, what is money "smart" precious "at the various futures markets. This is a report for each futures market. Although COT reports for years, the average investor does not know, not only know how to use it, not once, but it exists.
To read the report COT
Here's what happens – the government, particularly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) requires that all those who have a number of forward contracts over a certain limit, will be held to review their positions. For example, the threshold for the S & P futures are currently 1000 contracts. Therefore present only the truly great players. But 70% to 90% of all outstanding futures contracts.
Here's where to see the reports for different markets …
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm
The report will be published Friday (except holidays), basedData from the previous Tuesday. So that the information was published three days after the crime. Which is ok, because soon enough precious.
Column headings at the top of the report will be classified as non-commercial, trade and NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS.
If an account reported to the CFTC as holding positions above the specified level of alert, the number of contracts, the CFTC determines whether the account is a commercial hedger or large speculators.
Business –The CFTC classifies a futures account, which corresponds to the level of coverage, as ad spots "where the account holder files a statement with the Commission, which says that is commercially available in the activities covered by the use of futures market involved. They are the ones who are most concerned, for example, traders of S & P futures are the major institutional players like banks, pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and tradePart of Wall Street firms.
Non-commercial – than non-commercial are "large speculators". They do not deal in shares as part of the business. An example of a large speculative accounts could be a large market (pool of a fund) that trades futures for speculative profit. Managed futures accounts in billions of dollars and if they meet the numbers were their positions at the CFTC reported for monitoring.
NonreportablePositions – all traders, trade issues and speculation that smaller objects are considered as the level of declaration, as speculators "small". In other words, are all the others who participated in the futures markets – the proverbial "little fish".
The three players
To learn how to use the COT data, it is important to look more closely at the three types of players, the focus of report – traders, large speculators are taking, and small speculators. Wewant to know what each of them tick.
Traders dominate the market. That fact was not really a surprise for everyone, given the nature of what the commercials. For example, in the S & P futures market are banks, pension funds, mutual funds, the Wall Street brokerage houses and the like. They have large research departments and insider information that is simply not available in time for the average investor.
They also dominatebecause of their vastness. They are so big that are market realities. So, traders are those who are most concerned: We will try to determine what they are doing and day. History has shown that traders are in most futures markets for these issues right, most of the time. And if I'm wrong, are rarely wrong, very long. You will eventually end up on the right side of the market, both on the head ordown.
Large speculators tend to be trend followers. Once the market provides a trend upward or downward move in the direction of the trend. And 'interesting to know what they are doing on the market, but was not essential to your decision making.
The small speculators are usually on the wrong side of the market. In fact, it was estimated that up to 90% of small distributors money in futures markets. They tend to serve as "cannon fodder" forbig traders. Still, the smart money has to have someone of the opposite side of their craft. Small speculators are generally willing to assume this role. I remember the Harlem Globetrotters against the Washington Generals. The spots are the Globetrotters. The small speculators are the generals – the scapegoats who are forced to lose.
Commercial dealers are those who follow. They are the "smart money". If it is an extremely long or short, with regardtheir positions in the past, is a reliable indicator of market development.
inthemoneystocks.com breaks the most important techniques of analysis techniques that have become famous. They analyze the maps on the market with their line of trend technical analysis, price, model and time values. Using this method and not with the common technical tools that work in order to avoid as much as ever, they will be able to obtain all markets large and small, called Wall Street hype. inthemoneystocks.com provides a great support and resistance in the standings tell theirAttendance, if the rise and fall of the market. They talk about important rules that must be learned. Have fun and get their reward daily, monthly, weekly and intraday expert on markets, gold, oil, U.S. $ and the stocks in their premium video night, reports the market daily, by appointment merchant, hidden treasures technical and tactical. All this is in the center of research for only $ 49.99/month. Best Value and the leadership of Wall Street, while avoiding those that hype, the Wall Street! RealTick graphics usedWith the kind permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. © 1986-2009 Townsend Analytics, Ltd. All rights reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd.
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There are dozens if not hundreds of forex strategies. Most were developed by brokers or individual investors. The main strategy of big business and how to use the large hedge fund, is a long book. You can maintain a position for years.
Small investors, in general, a large number of short-term transactions that may have a position for days or weeks, but not for years at a time. In many cases, more operations are performed in a single day. These are calledIntra-crafts days.
This short-term, sometimes referred to as "commercial" activities do not bring big profits. And 'the accumulation of profit on a small number of occupations are usually not as different brands of FX traders happy.
Trading with the trend is a strategy often used by investors. Is considered one of the easiest to learn. The hard part is determining the direction of a trend and ready for them to do until the end.
Study of the weekly chart is a way to spotIntra-trend days. With tools such as Bollinger bands can help. In fact, there are a large number of analytical tools for this purpose. Some of the best software programs on the market contains a selection of them, as well as basic training for beginners Forex.
Another popular forex strategies, see or read the news. If the economic data shows the currency of a country, has a tremendous impact on the market, at least in the short term. Again,This strategy is not to ignore the long-term investor, the ups and downs of daily rule.
One of the biggest advantages of trading currencies is that the markets are open 24 hours a day. I hope to be your mediation. Because the market is open 24 hours, you can, the benefits, instead of press releases from around the world, something that could not be done in other markets.
If you are a Forex course, you can perhaps learn the message hits currencyCouples and couples who are more likely to be affected. It is also possible on what time of day to learn the news that can make even the time of the day for a purchase or a business controlled.
Although the trade with the trends and strategies forex messages that are increasingly popular, there are many others. Most are for the investor, in the name went with them. If it makes sense to try to prove.
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Producing a high probability trade forecast is not easy. Just as difficult is determining the best trading strategy and vehicles to capitalize on the forecast. Read on to learn some of my favorites trading strategies.
Another method to trade a projected move is to write a commodity option and protect it with another one of a different time frame. The choice depends on the price of the options and their time curves.
Let’s take an example. I remember a time when sugar was selling for about 6 cents and you could cheaply a buy 7-cent call out for 12 months. There was barely any premium in them. At the time you could sell the close in 2 month sugar 6.5 calls for a reasonable premium and continue to repeat this until the 12 month call expired. This would permit about six hedged writes over a year’s time.
These were low risk commodity option trades because the risk was only $625 a trade, being protected by the long call. Finding a long term “insurance policy” option like this and using it to keep rolling over short term options writes is a great technique.
This technique will not work if the market is real active and running, but if you catch a market that is asleep, buy the cheap, far-out in time hedge. If the commodity futures market then comes to life and option premiums expand, you will do even better to cover the option writes and hold the original call for the rally.
The opposite of this method can sometimes be the right choice also. Let’s say you expect soybeans to trend higher over time. If we write a close in strike put option with lots of time, we will collect a hefty premium. If the market is destined to trend higher, then the biggest risk is probably within the first month or two. If we can make it through the first two months, perhaps the underlying futures market will have gone far in our favor.
Buying a cheap put that has only a month or two until expiration will give us the needed protective hedge. After two months, if the market makes a favorable rally, we will be out of immediate danger as the short-term put option expires.
By doing this we pay a small premium for insurance, but get to keep the majority of the initial write premium in the following months, assuming the market holds firm or continues to rally.
Bear in mind that simply writing commodity options without predicting direction is a wash over the long term. Generally, the commodity market will not pay you simply to sell options in a range. You need to be useful by taking on risk. If simply selling options in a range worked profitably for the long term, everyone would be doing it and eventually the premiums would erode to the point of being minuscule.
There are other commodity option trading methods such as buying a call and selling a higher call to help pay for the first. And there’s a high-risk method of buying a call and selling two puts to fully pay for the call – but this is like holding two naked long futures and is not achieving our goal of reducing risk.
I find the best method for developing an option strategy is to first find a high probability, low risk futures trade. You MUST forecast direction to get an option edge, even when writing them. This forecast can even be a chopping market to write options or trending market for option position trades or spreads. Then use option analysis software to scan for the best option combinations to do the job.
Some traders make the mistake of relying entirely on the option analysis program to find undervalued or overvalued options, etc. But options are often that way for a reason and the market is reasonably efficient. You need to know direction.
Sometimes the forecast is questionable or the options are too expensive for buying or too cheap for selling, etc. It’s all a balancing act to finally come up with the optimum plan for a particular market.
More on this in later articles.
Part Three of Three Parts – Next
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
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As the foreclosure crisis has only grown worse by the month, and large banks are in danger of collapsing, the focus of government appears to be focused on helping homeowners save their homes from foreclosure. The government has stepped in with a number of different policies and programs that are designed to help people suffering from the foreclosure crisis. With most of what government does, though, the people who are designed to benefit are actually being hurt, while the parties who are most responsible for the financial crisis are socializing their losses.
The real estate bubble was inflated beyond all reasonable expectations of value at an increasing rate once the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in an effort to avoid a recession after the crash of the dot-coms and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Rates were lowered to below one percent, and people were encouraged to cash out home equity or buy a new home. Even people with poor credit were able to get mortgages for relatively low rates, and they took advantage.
Banks looked the other way during this boom, as many of the people setting lending guidelines were just as taken in by the low rates and rising values as everyone else. Hedge funds on Wall Street were only too willing to purchase bundles of these loans and were confident they would make money even on foreclosures. Home values were rising and people were buying as quickly as they could, which meant the inevitable foreclosed house could be sold for a profit.
But once the general awareness of the low quality of these loans spread throughout the economy, and property values stopped increasing, the entire house of cards began to fall. Unfortunately for those homeowners who made prudent decisions and did not take advantage of the run-up in prices, the large number who were facing foreclosure helped drag property values down even further. A likely response has been the calls from homeowners, concerned interest groups, and some politicians for a federal government bailout of homeowners.
The message of providing help directly to foreclosure victims has been much more widely spread through the media than any description of the actions being taken by the government to bail out the banks at the expense of homeowners. First of all, the Federal Reserve has been creating new money out of thin air to give to the banks. The central bank has been injecting tens of billions of dollars into the financial system and are even considering about $200 billion more in the near future.
However, direct injections of liquidity have so far failed to stimulate the economy. So now the Fed is left to its favorite tool of inflating the money supply and causing the dollar to fall in value. The price of goods like food and energy are going up dramatically, which hurts the people who need to eat and go to work in order to pay their mortgage. But it bails out the banks and helps them cover their poor lending practices. Of course, this is a reflection of the fact that the banks are infinitely more influential in Washington than the average person, especially an average person too busy trying to stop foreclosure to worry about what is going on in politics.
HOPE NOW and Project Lifeline are two voluntary programs the government has put together and presented as a saving grace for homeowners facing the loss of a home. Essentially, the programs are nothing more than media relations programs where a handful of major banks in the country are voluntarily offering homeowners various programs to save their homes. This might be through repayment plans or loan modifications, or freezing the interest rate for a set period of time. But these have always been offered to homeowners who can qualify for them — putting a fancy new name on them does not change what the programs actually do.
Thus far, these have been the only responses from the government in regards to the foreclosure crisis. Although it would probably be better that they stay out of the situation entirely, the Federal Reserve continuing to inflate the money supply and manipulate interest rates will have unintended consequences for homeowners while benefiting the largest, most politically-connected banks. Monetary bailouts and voluntary programs for the banks. Inflation and currency collapse for homeowners.
Homeowners attempting to find some way to stop foreclosure would be better off trying to negotiate with their banks right now and trying to work something out, even if just for the short term. This will more than likely result in a much better chance to avoid losing the house, rather than waiting for a different government program to save them. For example, there are some proposed changes to bankruptcy laws that may allow courts to lower the total amount owed on the mortgage to reflect current market conditions, but nothing is set into law yet and certain members of Congress and the banking industry will probably be successful in blocking the changes, as they benefit people instead of corporations.
From changing the bankruptcy laws in 2005, to manipulating interest rates from 2001-2006, to injecting tens of billions of inflated dollars into failing banks, much of what government purports to be helping the average person instead only serves to take what little money they are allowed to keep after paying taxes. The temptations of the easy credit conditions fostered by the government that inflated the housing bubble does not absolve homeowners of their individual responsibility to educate themselves on how mortgages work and what may happen if the good times did not continue. But it is not surprising that some of them also took advantage of these conditions to profit in the short term, while setting themselves up for a financial collapse down the road.
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March 3 (Bloomberg) — Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist and a professor at Columbia University, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker about Greece’s debt crisis. Stiglitz also discusses Goldman Sachs Group’s role in Greece’s debt problems and the outlook for the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)
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